Kamala Harris makes massive gain among key Michigan group

Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead from former President Donald Trump among a key voting group in Michigan, a new poll shows.

Harris now has a double-digit lead over Trump among Michigan voters over 65, pulling in 53 percent support, according to a new AARP poll released Tuesday. Trump received 42 percent support among the state’s oldest voters. In August, Trump lead by 6 points, drawing 48 percent to Harris’ 42 percent.

AARP’s October poll showed a dead heat in Michigan, with Harris and Trump tied at 46 percent among all voters, Robert F. Kennedy—who has since dropped out and endorsed Trump—still receiving 3 percent and other candidates combining for 2 percent. Another 2 percent remain undecided. In a head-to-head match, Trump leads by just one point in the swing state.

Trump narrowly won Michigan by some 10,000 votes in 2016, making him the first Republican to win the state since 1988, while Joe Biden flipped it back in 2020 with approximately 154,188 votes.

The latest poll is welcome news for Harris who has been seeing movement among older voters that could spell electoral success for the Democrat. As both campaigns pour resources into reaching younger voters, some experts have suggested that the candidates could be overlooking the senior vote, a rapidly growing demographic that’s been known to show up to the ballot box.

AARP’s latest Michigan poll shows that 92 percent of voters 65 and up are motivated to vote in this year’s election, compared to just 71 percent of those under 35 and 85 percent of voters aged 35 to 49.

The survey found that Harris also made inroads with Michigan’s youngest voters since August, expanding support among voters under 35 by 13 points. Trump, on the other hand, made gains among all of the state’s other voters. For example, those aged 50 to 64 moved a whopping 11 percent toward Trump since August.

“Michigan voters ages 50 and older are the largest voting bloc in the state, and this poll makes clear that they are not locked in for either candidate in the presidential or senate race,” Paula Cunningham, AARP Michigan State Director, told Newsweek. “While Trump holds a wide lead among voters ages 50-64, Harris matches that lead with voters over 65, making the race extremely close.”

Cunningham said that if candidates want to win, they should focus on issues that matter to older voters, including Social Security and policies that help seniors live at home as they age.

Immigration and border security remain the number one issue for Michiganders over 50, with inflation and rising prices coming second and the economy and jobs ranking third.

For the poll, “AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Michigan. The firms interviewed 1,382 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters age 50 or older, and an additional oversample of 312 Black likely voters age 50 and older. The survey was done between October 2-8, 2024…The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level for the 600 statewide sample is +/- 4.0%; for the 800 total sample of voters 50+ is +/- 3.5%; for the 400 sample of Black voters 50+ is +/- 4.9%.”