2025 NCAA Men’s Sweet 16 picks: Picking each region’s semifinalists
Last year’s Sweet 16 included 6-seed Clemson and 11-seed NC State but otherwise consisted of teams that were expected to be there.
The previous season, the 2023 Sweet 16 field memorably included 9-seed FAU, 15-seed Princeton, 7-seed Michigan State and 8-seed Arkansas, setting the stage for a shocking Final Four featuring FAU, 5-seeds Miami and San Diego State, and 4-seed UConn.
This year’s 1-seeds have all been dominant. But even if those teams easily reach the second weekend, there are plenty of other places in this year’s bracket for a Cinderella or two in the Sweet 16.
Below, we’ll go region-by-region to pick this year’s Sweet 16.
Each team’s futures odds to reach the Sweet 16 are listed in parentheses. Note: odds via DraftKings (as of Tuesday).
2025 Men’s South Region Sweet 16 Picks
- 1-seed Auburn (-425)
- 4-seed Texas A&M (+120)
- 3-seed Iowa State (-140)
- 7-seed Marquette (+260)
The case for Auburn is pretty self-explanatory, though I don’t think the Tigers’ second-round matchup will be a breeze against either Louisville or Creighton.
Who gets to face Auburn in the South Region semifinals is the biggest question in this region. 13-seed Yale (vs. Texas A&M) and 12-seed UC San Diego (vs. Michigan) are both capable of first-round upsets, but I’m going to go with defensively stout Texas A&M to reach its first Sweet 16 under coach Buzz Williams.
In the bottom half of this bracket, I think either Marquette or New Mexico can challenge — if not eliminate — Michigan State in the second round. The Spartans are always tough under Tom Izzo, but I’m not sold on this year’s Big Ten regular-season champs. Marquette G Kam Jones and New Mexico G Donovan Dent are both potent enough scorers to lead their team to multiple upset wins.
I also like the path for Iowa State, even without Keshon Gilbert, as I don’t think Lipscomb, Ole Miss, North Carolina or San Diego State have what it takes to bounce the Cyclones.
2025 Men’s East Region Sweet 16 Picks
- 1-seed Duke (-900)
- 4-seed Arizona (-180)
- 6-seed BYU (+180)
- 2-seed Alabama (-200)
Duke might not quite live up to the “national title favorite” hype, but I feel confident penciling in the Blue Devils to win at least two games, whether their second-round opponent is Mississippi State or Baylor.
Arizona is -180 to reach the Sweet 16 at DraftKings. The DK odds on the Wildcats’ competition for this spot — Oregon is +250, Liberty is +650 and Akron is +1100 to reach the Sweet 16 — tell you to take the Wildcats.
While Zona backers have reason to be wary of both Oregon (look up this team’s NCAA Tournament history under Dana Altman) and Liberty, who I like to upset the Ducks in the first round, I’ll resist the temptation to take the Flames and instead go with coach Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats to earn a meeting with Duke in the Sweet 16.
Alabama is a safe chalky bet but a good one to get past Robert Morris in the first round and either St. Mary’s or Vanderbilt in the second. Remember, Bama blitzed Bandy 103-87 after jumping out to a 48-31 halftime lead in the regular season, and it’s hard to see St. Mary’s outscoring the high-flying Tide.
A year ago, BYU (which was also a 6-seed in 2024) was a bit of an NCAA Tournament letdown, shooting just 8-for-24 from 3-point land in a first-round loss to 11-seed Duquesne. But this year, I’m once again bullish on sharpshooting BYU to not only take care of VCU in the first round, but also upset Wisconsin (or Montana) in the second to reach the Sweet 16.
2025 Men’s West Region Sweet 16 Picks
- 1-seed Florida (-800)
- 4-seed Maryland (-180)
- 11-seed Drake (+700)
- 2-seed St. John’s (-170)
I’m expecting the action in the West Region to (mostly) stick to the script. I’d be shocked if Florida or St. John’s gets eliminated in the first two rounds.
I also like Maryland to handle Grand Canyon in the first round and either Memphis or Colorado State in the second (though the 12-seed Rams, who are favored over Memphis, could be a tough out for Derik Queen and “The Crab Five.”)
I also expect Drake to pull a couple upsets and join the favorites at Chase Center in San Francisco in the Sweet 16.
Bennett Stirtz might be the best player from a midmajor in this tournament. After leading the 30-3 Bulldogs past Missouri in the first round, I think Stirtz and Co. will also take down either Texas Tech or UNC-Wilmington later this weekend.
2025 Men’s Midwest Region Sweet 16 Picks
- 1-seed Houston (-350)
- 5-seed Clemson (+140)
- 11-seed Texas (+900)
- 2-seed Tennessee (-270)
Houston and Tennessee are seemingly on a crash course for the Midwest Regional Final.
The question is, who will stand in the way of the Cougars and Vols at Lucas Oil Stadium as they battle for those spots in the Elite Eight?
Clemson has the balance and the experience to reach the Sweet 16 for the second year in a row. The Tigers are top-25 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency, according to KenPom. Guard Chase Hunter should once again be able to take this team to the second weekend (probably at the expense of 4-seed Purdue in the second round) after he averaged almost 18 points per game in four NCAA Tournament contests a year ago.
Texas went just 19-15 (6-12 SEC) this year. But thanks to star freshman Tre Johnson (who is an expected lottery pick in the 2025 NBA Draft) and the slew of quality wins on the Longhorns’ resume — Texas beat Kentucky, Texas A&M (twice), Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Missouri this year — I expect them to make some noise this weekend.
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